“We started to design 3G when the Internet wasn’t even truly around; and we started to design 4G when the smart phone wasn’t invented yet.” These are the smart words of the then-CEO of Ericsson and current CEO of Verizon, Hans Vestberg. In the spirit of his words and with 5G nearing deployments, it is timely to ask what the future of connectivity will look like; and what it means to consumers and industries alike.
Moore’s Law for Telecom Generations
Indeed, connectivity has undergone a massive growth. Who would have believed some decades back that the capacity over wireless systems would increase by more than 1,000,000? What where kilobytes years ago, are gigabytes today. Each telecoms generation has contributed to this incredible boost in capacity. But can we keep up the trend?
The unwritten law about trends seems to suggest that, yes, we will be keeping up. Moore’s Law, against all odds and predictions, is being fulfilled generation after generation, and the technical solutions to enable it have become ever more so complex. This means that key performance indicators (KPIs), such as data rate or latency, have consistently improved by at least one order of magnitude from G to G.
In the context of the transition from 5G to what comes beyond, that means that peak data rate of 10Gbps in 5G will need to yield 100Gbps or more in 6G. A latency of a millisecond in 5G needs to come down to 100 microseconds or less in 6G. The number of devices able to attach to a single base station or access point will also need to be increased by an order of magnitude to likely a million devices.
Is there demand for such a powerful system today? No. But please do remember Hans Vertberg’s words cited above. Demand will build up over the years as the technology is being introduced, and so far each generation has founds its “killer” app, it’s true purpose.
Revolution in Connectivity?
I have argued as of 2015 that 5G will likely be the last G in the form as we know it. This comes from the fact that the telecommunications infrastructure is being softwarized, in a similar move as the computing industry decades back. The biggest beneficiary of such a decoupling of hardware and software are consumers and industries.
Why? Well, innovation will simply be able to take place at an accelerated pace. When is the last time you have seen Facebook, Microsoft and Dell sit together to design the next generation Internet? Exactly, never! In the computing and internet industries, we have clearly separated hardware (e.g. Dell) from the middleware operating system (e.g. Microsoft) from the applications running on top (e.g. Facebook). Each can innovate at their own pace, and thus does it much quicker. With the telco eco system starting to exhibit these traits, we are in for a massive acceleration of innovation over coming years; and with it come better services and awesome applications.
Once, however, we have moved from designing the entire system “in a box” to designing softwarized and decoupled features of the system, the entire notion of “G” is brought into doubt. We will be innovating in features and capabilities, all of which are independent. There is hence good ground to believe that 5G (and possibly 6G) will be the last G.
Internet of Skills
Following the trends, the KPIs will be so powerful that they enable prior unheard of system concepts, one of which is the emerging Internet of Skills.
Enabled by ultra-low latency and ultra-high bandwidth connectivity systems, current embodiments of the Internet will be dwarfed by the emergence of the Internet of Skills (“Human 4.0”). Said next generation Internet will allow for the delivery of physical experiences in form of touch and muscle movement remotely. The Internet of Skills will revolutionise operations and servicing capabilities for industries and it will revolutionise the way we teach, learn, and interact with our surroundings for consumers.
The Internet of Skills will be an enabler for remote skillset delivery and thereby democratise labour the same way as the Internet has democratised knowledge.
The potential global impact of this creation would be phenomenal and instrumental in conquering some of the world’s biggest challenges. The Internet of Skills – having reached widespread adoption or being deployed at needs – will enable important disaster operation applications such as remote monitoring/surgery of people in need (e.g. applicable in Ebola hit areas); it will enable remote education (e.g. a child in Gaza is taught painting); it will enable industrial remote decommissioning and servicing capabilities (e.g. the remote reparation of a broken car in Africa); among other important applications.
About the Author
Mischa Dohler is full Professor in Wireless Communications at King’s College London, driving cross-disciplinary research and innovation in technology, sciences and arts. He is a Fellow of the IEEE, the Royal Academy of Engineering, the Royal Society of Arts (RSA), the Institution of Engineering and Technology (IET); and a Distinguished Member of Harvard Square Leaders Excellence. He is a serial entrepreneur with 5 companies; composer & pianist with 5 albums on Spotify/iTunes; and fluent in 6 languages. He acts as policy advisor on issues related to digital, skills and education. He has had ample coverage by national and international press and media.
