Amid predictions of global economic slowdowns and several recent PMI readings indicating manufacturing contraction, it becomes easy to see how slow production performance and data inefficiencies throughout the manufacturing supply chain contribute to economic uncertainty and concerns for future business. At the same time, manufacturing’s history is replete with numerous “Great Leaps Forward” in technology and technology application, each of which was followed by enormous business opportunities and economic expansion for the agile and articulate. The application of blockchain, the distributed ledger science behind Bitcoin, is demonstrating great promise for being a breakthrough of historic proportions for the entire manufacturing supply chain in many critical industries.
In framing such statements, it pays to pay attention to the Gartner Hype Cycle. In this cycle, innovations trigger expectations, expectations rapidly inflate and peak, followed by a steep decline into the Trough of Disillusionment, then by a measured rise up the Slope of Enlightenment, opening on to the Plateau of Productivity. Applications proceed through the cycle in times ranging from less than two years to more than 10. Many become obsolete less than halfway through.
Another model I use every day is a decision strategy called the OODA Loop, developed by fighter pilot John Boyd. OODA stands for Observe (everything from a business competitor or market to a military adversary in combat operations), Orient, Decide, and Act. In business, the act step is being able to apply emerging technologies that allow you to pivot as conditions evolve and change.
Peer-to-Peer Trust
In his book “Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind,” Yuval Noah Harari notes, “For the first time in the 50,000 years of modern human history, we now have the opportunity to establish peer-to-peer trust.” Trust is a powerful enabler in business as it fundamentally anchors relationships. Blockchain now allows individuals and companies to manufacture trust in their business relationships and transactions.
Industries with critical part-performance requirements - including aerospace, defence, energy, automotive, and medical - are well-acquainted with trust relationships, having part-checking requirements and verifications built into the supply chain. What they’re not acquainted with is top supply chain efficiency. Manufacturers spend millions of dollars verifying part and process quality with varying degrees of success, from antiquated and time-consuming job tickets and paper trails to complex, Big Data-inspired computerised systems requiring extensive, customised, and costly IT infrastructures. Manufacturing companies without the knowledge or resources are effectively cut out from acquiring or growing any business in complex part manufacturing.
In addition, industries from aerospace and defence to vitamins and supplements are fraught with counterfeit parts. Every action in the supply chain - obtaining raw materials, confirming and finalising part-design adjustments, manufacturing, post-processing, shipping - generates microbursts of data, energy, and bandwidth. Blockchain-based technology allows us to capture this data and verify each transaction digitally along every step of the process. Essentially, this creates an append-only digital ledger system, available anytime, to any participant, whenever needed.
The Fourth Modality
In a 2015 article titled “The Great Chain of Being Sure About Things,” The Economist said, “the cryptographic technology that underlies Bitcoin, called the ‘blockchain,’ has applications well beyond cash and currency. It offers a way for people who do not know or trust each other to create a record of who owns what that will compel the assent of everyone concerned. It is a way of making and preserving truths.”
In a manufacturing world of digital part designs whose files not only establish design provenance but also power CNC machining and 3D printing equipment, establishing and preserving truth along each step of design, manufacturing, and customer handoff is an essential commodity. The blockchain as we know it began life in the mind of Satoshi Nakamoto, the brilliant, pseudonymous and so far unidentified creator of Bitcoin - a “purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash,” as he put it in a paper published in 2008. To work as cash, Bitcoin had to be able to change hands without being diverted into the wrong account and to be incapable of being spent twice by the same person. The avoidance of such abuses had to be achieved without recourse to any trusted third party, such as banks that stand behind conventional payment systems.
The blockchain becomes this trusted third party. A database that contains the payment history of every Bitcoin in circulation, the blockchain provides proof of who owns what at any given juncture. This distributed ledger is replicated on thousands of computers - Bitcoin’s “nodes” around the world and is publicly available. But for all its openness, it is also trustworthy and secure. This is guaranteed by the mixture of mathematical subtlety and computational brute force built into its consensus mechanism - the process by which the nodes agree on how to update the blockchain in the light of Bitcoin transfers from one person to another.
Adjusting blockchain to part production and verification essentially and efficiently digitises the paper trail for design through manufacturing and logistics. Digital assets created with the digital part design and blockchain pedigree can now be transported anywhere in the world or even into space through the cloud via a digital network. Logistics is no longer bound to the modalities of land, sea, and air; blockchain creates and supports a critical fourth logistics modality: digital.
Today, manufacturing is deliberately pushed to the “edge,” and companies can transform that digital part to a physical part at the time of consumption when needed. Hundreds of distributed process participants- designers, engineers, raw-material buyers, equipment operators, process specialists, assemblers, schedulers, shippers, and all the supervisors in between - can be generating and appending thousands of ledger pages across ad-hoc networks that effectively establish peer-to-peer trust as parts move through production.
Such a process also becomes self-policing, quickly identifying underperformers and thereby strengthening the supply chain. Design and manufacturing owners retain their ownership and can aggregate and reward intellectual property from all stakeholders. Part and process provenance - which means to establish the true origin or source (from the Latin provenire, “to come forth”) - is determined every step of the way.
Establishing Use Cases
Bloomberg, the information service, recently stated that 86 percent of U.S. industry has either finished or has an ongoing blockchain project. What are the challenges? It pays to remember here that technology does not solve any problems. It is the application of technology that solves every problem.
That said, blockchain challenges in the manufacturing supply chain include both technical and business-related hurdles. On the technical side, there is interoperability and scale. One of my collaboration partners is a company called AION. It has created a project that allows users to move from blockchain to blockchain and not lose immutability and transparency. It’s a big deal. There are numerous blockchains existing at the moment that will eventually funnel down to a general-purpose technology, like hypertext transfer protocol secure (HTTPS), that provides assurance that one is communicating with the website that one intended to, as opposed to an imposter and without interference by attackers.
The business challenges are value creation and behaviour modification. Value creation, or tying technology application to a problem solution, is where we earn our keep. Blockchain will allow for the creation of new value and new business models as it is applied to solve industry challenges. Behaviour modification naturally follows as suppliers move into the “trust” ecosystem. A company’s ability to modify the behaviour of supply chain participants depends on its position in the value chain. The best example recently is Walmart telling its lettuce suppliers they now must be on Walmart’s blockchain. Suppliers either comply or sell elsewhere. Walmart and others are hopeful blockchain can increase food safety. In contrast, if the lettuce fertilizer company said get on my blockchain or I won’t sell you fertilizer, farmers are free to buy fertilizer somewhere else.
Enter 3D Printing